Home |
Press Room |
Press
Release Archives | U.S. Census Division Economic Indices December 2011
For Immediate Release
January 5, 2012
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst's U.S. Economic Index Ends 2011 On
A Humdrum Note;
The West North Central Census Division Sees A Decline In 2011
Arlington, Texas—Over the course of 2011, the Decision Analyst U.S.
Economic Index dipped 2 points from 95 in January 2011 to 93 in December 2011.
For most of 2011, the general trend of the U.S. Economic Index has been lateral,
oscillating between 93 and 95, with a minor dip in September to 89. The West North
Central had the largest drop of all the Census Divisions, dropping 7 points from
101 in January 2011 to 94 in December 2011. The sideways movement of the Index
suggests continued economic weakness in the first half of 2012 and probably the
second half as well. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator that tends
to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months.
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.
“The Index for the past 12 months indicates an anemic economy,
hovering between recovery and a double-dip recession. The trend of the U.S. Index
is suggesting a very slowly expanding economy for 2012,” said Jerry W. Thomas,
President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “There are a few positive factors in
the economy. Some private companies are hiring, stock markets are relatively stable,
and manufacturing is up. However, unemployment (including discouraged workers)
is high and underemployment is still high. This in turn reduces consumer buying
power and consumer confidence. Lack of credit and lack of capital for small businesses
are major barriers to growth. High debt levels, public and private, are reducing
the funds available for spending and investment. Lastly, gridlock in Washington
and indecision in Europe are making major corporations reluctant to make strategic
investments,” said Thomas.
The West South Central Division appears to have the strongest economy with
an Index of 101. The South Atlantic and the Mountain Divisions appear to be the
weakest—with both having a score of 90. (See map below.)
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. The South Atlantic Census Division dropped 5
points from 95 in January 2011 to 90 in December 2011. The West South Central
Division was the only division that saw no decline; it started and finished 2011
with the same Index score of 101. No division ended the year higher than it began
the year. The division-by-division results for the past 10 years are presented
in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs portray 3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
Visit our Logos & Images page for photographs and logos, if needed.
