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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices December 2010
For Immediate Release
January 6, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index by Census
Division;
From December 1999 to December 2010
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index ended 2010
with an Index of 96, a decrease of 3 points from November. Overall the U.S.
Economic Index has been gradually trending upward since the decade low of 85
in January and February 2009. Since the U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator
(tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months), the Index
is forecasting an expanding U.S. economy for 2011. The Index is also indicating
that growth in 2011 will be slow and fragile. The ongoing stimulus from deficit
spending and quantitative easing might tend to accelerate the pace of economic
growth as the year progresses. Here is the U.S. Economic Index from December
1999 to December 2010.
“The past 11 years started on a high note with the U.S.
Economic Index peaking at 132 during the dot.com bubble. Then, the Index trended
sideways in the aftermath of 9/11, before starting its downward slide during
2006 to foretell the recession’s start in fall of 2007,” according
to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The Index currently
indicates an economy in the doldrums. Unemployment continues to be a major problem
(our tracking data indicates an unemployment rate around 16%, similar to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ U-6 measure of unemployment). The world financial
system appears to be moving forward—but on crutches. The risks of financial
meltdowns in 2011, especially in Europe, are of great concern, and these risks
could dampen economic growth in 2011. The housing market continues to be a major
risk factor, as are the possibility of gridlock in Washington, D.C., and the
growing national debt. Despite all of these headwinds, we think the U.S. economy
will continue to expand over the next 12 months,” said Thomas.
The West North Central and the West South Central Divisions have the highest
scores (102 and 101, respectively), while the East South Central Division has
the lowest score at 92. The center of the U.S. is benefiting from higher prices
for farm commodities (see map below) and higher prices for energy.
The trends for the various Census Divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. These division-by-division results for the
past 11 years are presented in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs portray
3-month moving averages. (See the individual census division graphs below.)
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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