Home |
Press Room |
Press
Release Archives | U.S. Census Division Economic Indices November2011
For Immediate Release
December 7, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst's U.S. Economic Index Signals Weakness,
The Mountain Division Sees A Decline In November 2011
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index dipped 1 point
from 94 in October 2011 to 93 in November 2011. The Mountain Census Division declined
2 points from 91 in October 2011 to 89 in November 2011. The general trend of
the U.S. Economic Index over the past 12 months has been downward. The Index's
downtrend is suggesting continued economic weakness in the first half of 2012
and probably the second half as well. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator
that tends to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months.
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.
“A look at the 10-year chart above shows that the economic
recovery has been anemic. The trend of the U.S. Index is suggesting very slow
economic growth in 2012, or perhaps no growth at all,” said Jerry W. Thomas,
President/CEO of Decision Analyst. "The U.S. economy continues to face strong
headwinds. Very high unemployment (as high as 20% if all of the discouraged workers
are counted) is reducing consumer buying power and consumer confidence. Lack of
credit and lack of capital for small businesses are major barriers to growth.
High debt levels, public and private, are also reducing the funds available for
spending and investment. Lastly, uncertainty created by gridlock in Washington
and indecision in Europe is making major corporations reluctant to make strategic
investments," said Thomas.
The West South Central Division appears to have the strongest economy with
an Index of 98. The East South Central and the Mountain Divisions appear to be
the weakest—with scores of 88 and 89, respectively. (See map below.)
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. The Mountain Census Division saw the most movement,
declining 2 points from 91 in October 2011 to 89 in November 2011. All other divisions
either stayed the same or changed by only 1 point. The division-by-division results
for the past 10 years are presented in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs
portray 3-month moving averages
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
Visit our Logos & Images page for photographs and logos, if needed.
