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Release Archives | U.S. Census Division Economic Indices October 2011
For Immediate Release
November 4, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Strengthens
in October;
The East South Central Division Sees an Increase
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index increased
5 points from 89 in September 2011 to 94 in October 2011. The East South Central
Census Division increased 2 points from 86 in September 2011 to 88 in October
2011. The overall pattern of the Index is suggesting continued economic stagnation
for the balance of 2011 and into the first half of 2012. The U.S. Economic Index
is a leading indicator that tends to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6
to 12 months.
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.
“The economy is showing some signs of life. Business activity
and future consumer purchase intentions for durable goods increased in October,
while inflation eased (with gasoline prices falling and food prices stabilizing).
If inflation rates remain moderate, the U.S. economy stands a good chance of avoiding
a double-dip recession, although economic growth will be modest at best.”
said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “A number of headwinds
continue to slow the U.S. economy: high unemployment, reductions in government
spending at all levels, and reluctance on the part of businesses to make major
investments. Uncertainty related to politics and budget problems in the U.S. and
Europe is the primary culprit.”
The West South Central Division appears to have the strongest economy with
an Index of 97. The East South Central and the South Atlantic Divisions appear
to be the weakest—with scores of 88 and 89, respectively. (See map below.)
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. The East South Central Division had the largest
increase, increasing two points from 86 in September 2011 to 88 in October 2011.
The Mountain Division has the largest decrease, dropping three points from 94
in September 2011 to 91 in October 2011. The division-by-division results for
the past 10 years are presented in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs
portray 3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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