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Release Archives | U.S. Census Division Economic Indices August 2011
For Immediate Release
September 2, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Declines
During Last 10 Days of August;
The U.S. Mountain Census Division Sees an Increase
Arlington, Texas—Amid fears of a double-dip recession, the Decision
Analyst U.S. Economic Index moved from 95 in July to 93 in August 2011. Of the
U.S. Census Divisions, the Mountain Division was the only one to see an increase,
jumping from 91 in July to 94 in August 2011. The Index has been flat to slightly
declining over the past 8 or 9 months, suggesting economic sluggishness for the
balance of 2011 and into the first part of 2012. The U.S. Economic Index is a
leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12
months). Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years:
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.
“The tracking data continue to tell the same story, the
story of a fragile economy that is barely able to hold its head above water. The
predicted slow pace of economic expansion means that the economy will be vulnerable
to shocks and bumps—that could easily trigger another official recession,”
said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The Index is predicting
a no-growth to slow-growth economy for the fall of 2011 and the first half of
2012, with a substantial risk of a double-dip recession. High unemployment, government
cutbacks (at the local, federal, and global levels), tight corporate purse strings,
a depressed housing market, and uncertainty continue to slow economic momentum.”
The center of the United States has the highest scores, with the West South
Central Division having a score of 98 and the West North Central having a score
of 97. The East South Central and New England Divisions tied for the lowest score
(90). (See map below.)
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. The New England and the West South Central Census
Divisions each dropped 2 points from July to August. The New England Census Division
dropped from 92 in July to 90 in August and the West South Central Census Division
dropped from 100 in July to 98 in August. The division-by-division results for
the past 10 years are presented in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs
portray 3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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