For Immediate Release
September 2, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—Amid fears of a double-dip recession, the Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index moved from 95 in July to 93 in August 2011. The Index has been flat to slightly declining over the past 8 or 9 months, suggesting economic sluggishness for the balance of 2011 and into the first part of 2012. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months). Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years:

Below is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years:

“The tracking data continue to tell the same story, the story of a fragile economy that is barely able to hold its head above water. The predicted slow pace of economic expansion means that the economy will be vulnerable to shocks and bumps—that could easily trigger another official recession,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The Index is predicting a no-growth to slow-growth economy for the fall of 2011 and the first half of 2012, with a substantial risk of a double-dip recession. High unemployment, government cutbacks (at the local, federal, and global levels), tight corporate purse strings, a depressed housing market, and uncertainty continue to slow economic momentum.”

“The high risk of a financial meltdown in Europe within the next 12 months continues to pose a huge risk for the world economy, as the European Union struggles to deal with excessive debt and fragile economies. These risks could dampen world economic growth in 2012,” said Thomas.

The table below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. The emerging countries in South America and Asia have strong scores; Brazil has an Index of 122 and China has an Index of 120. The North American countries are hovering in the mid- to low 90s, with Canada’s Index score of 96 and Mexico’s score of 93. Meanwhile in Europe, Germany has the strongest Index with a score of 102, followed by the Russian Federation with a score of 99.

The center of the United States has the highest scores, with the West South Central Division having a score of 98 and the West North Central having a score of 97. The East South Central and New England Divisions tied for the lowest score (90). (See map below.)

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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