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Economic Indices April 2011
For Immediate Release
May 5, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Slipping
in April 2011;
The German Economic Index Is Also Down
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered
93 for April 2011, a 1-point decline from March’s Index of 94. For the
past 6 months, the U.S. Economic Index has gradually declined, dropping 6 points
since in November 2010. Germany’s Index saw a 4-point decline from 109
in November 2010 to 105 in April 2011. Since the Decision Analyst Economic Indices
are leading indicators for their respective countries (tending to foreshadow
overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months in each respective country), the
Index is forecasting slow economic growth for the balance of 2011. Here is the
U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years.
“The persistent decline of the U.S. Economic Index over the past six
months is worrisome. The Index is predicting a sluggish economy for the balance
of 2011, with growing risks of recession.” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO
of Decision Analyst. “The recovery is fragile, and rising prices for food
and energy are sapping consumer buying power. Any major shock to the U.S. economy
would easily tip it back into a recession. The unemployment rate remains high.
Many state, county, and city governments are cutting employees to balance their
budgets. Small businesses are doing slightly better, but still struggling to
get access to credit at reasonable rates. Then there are the debt and deficit
problems of the U.S. Government—and Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Japan,
etc.”
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices for the individual countries for the
past 10 years are below.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, and Spain are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month
fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the
two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product research,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the
world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology,
medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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