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Room | Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices
For Immediate Release
January 6, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
U.S. Economy Ended 2009 With a Whimper—Decision
Analyst’s
December Economic Index Remains Unchanged
Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index for December
2009 remained unchanged from November—at an Index of 94. Over the course
of 2009, the Index moved up from a low point of 85 in January and February to
94 in November and December, as shown in the graph below. Since this Index tends
to lead the U.S. economy by nine to 12 months, this sideways movement of the
Economic Index is predicting a sluggish economy during 2010. Below is the Economic
Index for the past three years.
“The economy is ending 2009 on a positive note for the future,
but the ‘recovery’ remains weak and tentative. Record high unemployment
(our data indicate a U.S. unemployment rate of around 17%, very similar to the
Bureau of Labor Statistic’s broadest measure of unemployment) is a major
risk to economic growth in 2010. Lack of credit for businesses and individuals
remains a major drag on the U.S. economy. The risk that financial markets will
freeze up again during 2010 is substantial. Consumer plans to make durable goods
purchases in 2010 are relatively weak,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO
of Decision Analyst. “The U.S. economy is still on life support in the
emergency room, and any shock to the system could trigger another downward spiral.”
The Pacific, Mountain, and South Atlantic Divisions continue to struggle,
compared to other sections of the U.S. The West North Central and West South
Central appear to be doing better than the rest of the country. (See regional
map below.)
| Three-Year History By Census
Division |
The East North Central (automotive region) and New England census divisions
increased the most from January to December (increasing 14 points and 11 points,
respectively). The West South Central and Mountain census divisions increased
the least from January to December (increasing six points each).
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 31-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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