Home |
Press
Room |
Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices October 2010
For Immediate Release
November 3, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
U.S. Economy Continues Its Slow Expansion Through
Remainder of 2010,
According To Decision Analyst's Economic Index
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered
96 in October, the same level as the previous month. The trend in the U.S. Economic
Index over the past 20 months has been gradual improvement. The U.S. Economic
Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity
by six to 12 months) and it is forecasting a slowly expanding U.S. economy for
the balance of 2010 and most of 2011.
“The U.S. economy continues its slow and steady growth,”
according to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The
manufacturing sector has improved moderately, consumer spending is gradually
rising, interest rates remain low, and major corporations are flush with cash.
The U.S. economy should continue to muddle along and expand modestly. The biggest
barriers to a more rapid recovery are high unemployment, the continuing problems
in the housing sector, the budget problems of all governmental entities, and
the lack of credit for small businesses. Since small businesses are so important
in creating new jobs, the lack of credit is retarding job creation. Without
aggressive job creation, the economy will continue to limp forward on wobbly
feet. If there are no major shocks to the system (such as another financial
crisis or credit freeze), the U.S. economy should continue its recovery,”
said Thomas. “The threat of a double-dip recession remains a concern,
however, simply because economic growth is so fragile.”
Middle Atlantic, New England, West North Central, and South Atlantic Divisions
appear to be doing a little better than the rest of the country, while the Mountain
Division is struggling. It has the weakest Index of all the U.S. Census Divisions.
(See map below.)
| Three-Year History By Census Division |
The South Atlantic and the Middle Atlantic Census Divisions have seen gradual
improvement over recent months; the South Atlantic Census Division improved
from 94 in May to 97 in October, while the Middle Atlantic Census Division improved
from 95 in May to 98 in October. While still having one of the higher Index
scores of the Census Divisions, the New England Division has declined from 102
in May to 97 in October. (See the individual census division graphs below.)
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
Visit our Logos & Images page for photographs and logos, if needed.
