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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices
For Immediate Release
October 5, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Shows
Gradual Improvement
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered
96 in September, a one-point increase from the previous month. The overall pattern
is a gradual uptrend in the Index over the past 18 months. Since the U.S. Economic
Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity
by six to 12 months), the Index is forecasting a slowly expanding U.S. economy
for the balance of 2010 and the first half of 2011. Here is the U.S. Economic
Index for the past three years.
“The U.S. economy continues to show a pattern of modest
but steady growth,” according to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision
Analyst. “Major corporations are flush with cash and credit at low interest
rates, and this will exert positive energy to sustain the recovery. The international
economy continues to recover as well, and this will provide uplift for the U.S.
economy. Small businesses in the U.S., however, continue to struggle without
access to adequate credit. The continued weakness in the housing industry, mortgage
problems, and high unemployment limits growth. Budget deficits at all levels
of government, and the consequent cutbacks in governmental expenditures and
increases in taxes, will also act to slow the economy throughout the next two
or three years. If there are no major shocks to the system (such as another
financial crisis or credit freeze), the U.S. economy should continue its plodding
recovery,” said Thomas. “The threat of a double-dip recession remains,
however, simply because economic growth is so feeble. The margin of error is
small. It would not take much to move us from the positive to the negative.”
The New England and Middle Atlantic Divisions appear to be doing better than
the rest of the country, while the Mountain Division has the weakest Index of
all the U.S. Census Divisions. (See map below.)
| Three-Year History By Census Division |
The South Atlantic and Middle Atlantic Census Divisions have seen gradual improvement
over first part of 2010; the South Atlantic Division improved from 94 in April
2010 to 96 in September 2010 and the Middle Atlantic Division improved from
95 in April to 98 in September. While still having one of the highest Index
scores of the Census Division, the New England Division has declined from 104
in April to 98 in September. Also declining are the West North Central Division
(declining from 100 in June to 95 in September) and the Mountain Division (from
94 in June to 91 in September). (See the individual census division graphs below.)
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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