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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices
For Immediate Release
August 4, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Signals
Slow Growth
The West North Central Census Division Index Declines
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst Economic Index for the U.S. registered
94 in July 2010, a one-point decline from 95 in June 2010. The West North Central
Census Division had the largest one-month decline, dropping from 100 in June
to 96 in July. Since the Decision Analyst Economic Index tends to foreshadow
the U.S. economy by six to 12 months, it continues to indicate that economic
growth will be sluggish for the remaining months of 2010 and into the first
half of 2011. Below is the U.S. Economic Index for the past three years.
“The U.S. Economic Index has been essentially flat for the
past 10 months,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst.
“This suggests that economic growth in coming months will range from 0%
to 2% or so, on average. It’s difficult to see any forces or variables
that might produce strong economic growth in the next year. Consumers and small
businesses in the U.S. are constrained by lack of credit and lack of jobs. Business
investment will be trending up because of the length of this downturn (machines
wear out and must be replaced), but that alone will not be sufficient to stimulate
strong economic growth. Another drag on the economy will be cutbacks in spending
by counties, school districts, cities, and states over the next two years,”
said Thomas. “On balance, the U.S. economy should stay on the plus side,
but a modest double-dip is possible. High unemployment will remain a national
problem for the foreseeable future.”
The Pacific and Mountain Divisions have the lowest index score of all the
U.S. Census Divisions and the New England Division has the highest index score
of all the census divisions. (See map below.)
| Three-Year History By Census
Division |
While the majority of the Census Divisions remain relatively flat or only have
slight changes, there are a few Divisions with more dramatic changes. The New
England Division has dropped from 104 in April to 97 in July. The Mountain Division
has had a small decline, dropping from 96 in April to 93 in July. (See the individual
census division graphs below.)
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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