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Economic Index
For Immediate Release
May 4, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s International Economic Indices
For Germany And U.S. Are Blooming;
While Concerns Remain for Italy And Brazil
Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index increased
three points from 95 in March to 98 in April, while Canada has rebounded, increasing
eight points, from 93 in March to 101 in April. Germany has increased from 99
in March to 101 in April. However, amid massive debt, Italy has continued its
drop, decreasing from 91 in March to 87 in April, while Brazil has dropped six
points, from 132 in March to 126 in April. Since the Decision Analyst Economic
Indices tend to lead the economy by six to 12 months, they continue to predict
a gradually improving global economy during 2010, albeit with concerns about
heavy sovereign debt. Below are the International Economic Indices for the past
three years.
*Data collection for China began in October 2007.
“The April jump in the U.S. Economic Index indicates
accelerating growth in the U.S. economy in coming months. As confidence builds
in the U.S., corporations will start to make capital investments and begin
to consider staffing up to take advantage of the economic expansion,”
said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “Tight bank
credit remains a major drag on the economy, but some banks are beginning to
climb out of their foxholes and look around for loan opportunities. Banks,
too, are affected by good economic news, so they are likely to become more
positive and more receptive to loaning money as the recovery continues.
“Nevertheless, major structural risks remain: excessive debt, especially
sovereign debt (particularly in Greece, Spain, Ireland, U.K., and even the
U.S.); threats of runaway inflation; high unemployment; the possibility
that the credit markets might freeze up again; and the growing economic
bubble in China,” said Thomas.
Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for Mexico, Germany, Spain, Australia, Argentina, China,
Chile, and Colombia are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month
fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the
two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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