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Economic Indices
For Immediate Release October 6, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
U.S. Economy Struggling to Gain Traction; Decision
Analyst’s
September Economic Index Points to Low Growth or No Growth
Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index for September
2009 trended down slightly, falling from 93 in August to 92 in September. Since
this Index tends to foreshadow the U.S. economy by nine to 12 months, this “flat”
trend indicates a very slow-growth or no-growth economy in coming months. The
Index successfully predicted the stabilization of the U.S. economy evident in
the third quarter, but now is signaling a stagnant future. Here’s the
Economic Index for the past three years:
The West North Central and the West South Central divisions appear to be weathering
the recession better than the rest of the country. That is, the area from North
Dakota and Minnesota south to Texas and Louisiana is doing much better than
the remaining parts of the U.S. The New England and Middle Atlantic regions
are improving. The whole Western portion of the U.S. is struggling (Pacific
and Mountain), as well as the East North Central division (automotive blues)
and the East South Central and South Atlantic. (See regional map below.)
| Three-Year History By Census
Division |
The Middle Atlantic and the East North Central census divisions are trending upwards, while the West
South Central and the Pacific divisions have seen slight declines recently.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The Index number reported
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst
Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy.
An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below
100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country,
however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 30-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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