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For Immediate Release September 4, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index remained at 93 for August. The Index has been essentially flat for the past five months, but significantly higher than its low point in January and February 2009. Since the U.S. Economic Index anticipates changes in gross domestic product by 9 to 12 months, the Index is indicating a possible end of the recession by the close of 2009. However, the Index is also predicting a very feeble and prolonged recovery, with unemployment continuing to rise throughout most of 2010.

“The key to a sustained recovery is increased consumer spending,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “However, consumer spending will continue to be constrained by lack of credit, and by salary reductions, rising unemployment, and growing job-loss fears. The economic system will remain fragile, and any shock to the system could trigger another downward spiral.”

Census Divisions

The West North Central and the West South Central divisions appear to be weathering the recession better than the rest of the country. That is, the area from North Dakota and Minnesota south to Texas and Louisiana is doing much better than the remaining parts of the U.S. The whole Western portion of the U.S. is struggling (Pacific and Mountain), as well as the East North Central division (automotive blues) and the East South Central and South Atlantic.

 

International Index

The chart below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. Canada, Germany, and Australia appear to be performing better than the U.S., while China, Brazil, and India appear to be doing better than most countries. France and Mexico appear to be doing comparatively worse than other countries.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 30-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates American Consumer Opinion® Online—one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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